Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00226915          18          49          30           3           0        B5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000821350          13          44          33          10           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   3.77283e-08          59          38           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            28.00       47.25       20.75        4.00        0.00     B2.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)