Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00236476           3          30          57           8           2        C2.0
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00102829           3          15          57          22           3        C3.0
GOES Xray  =   7.88691e-07           1           0          53          39           7        C8.6
est. ISN   =            61           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             2.25       15.00       57.25       22.00        3.50     C3.8
 
realized                                                                                      X1.3