Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238896           5          17          57          18           3        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00107045           2          15          61          19           3        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   9.90246e-07           1           0          34          55          10        M1.3
est. ISN   =            65           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             3.00       10.50       53.75       28.25        4.50     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      M4.3