Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241624           2          16          63          16           3        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00112730           3           4          66          19           8        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.04679e-06           1           0          28          58          13        M1.7
est. ISN   =            77           1           9          59          28           3        C4.9
 
together                             1.75        7.25       54.00       30.25        6.75     C6.5
 
realized                                                                                      M2.2