Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238537           5          21          56          16           2        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00107173           2          15          62          18           3        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   7.50803e-07           1           0          49          42           8        M1.0
est. ISN   =            74           1           8          55          33           3        C6.6
 
together                             2.25       11.00       55.50       27.25        4.00     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      C4.0