Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242401           1          13          63          19           4        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00110014           2          13          64          14           7        C3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.37238e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            59           3          19          61          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             1.75       11.25       53.25       27.00        6.75     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      M5.8