Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00240140           2          14          62          21           1        C3.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00109081           2          14          64          15           5        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   9.50429e-07           1           0          42          48           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =            65           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             2.25        9.50       57.75       26.25        4.25     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1