Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00243554           3          16          54          22           5        C3.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00116596           3           1          70          24           2        C4.6
GOES Xray  =   1.16951e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            55           2          22          61          14           1        C2.5
 
together                             2.25        9.75       52.50       29.75        5.75     C5.1
 
realized                                                                                      C9.1