Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241835           2          15          63          16           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00114391           3           3          72          19           3        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.05188e-06           1           0          28          58          13        M1.7
est. ISN   =            78           1           5          65          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             1.75        5.75       57.00       29.25        6.25     C6.6
 
realized                                                                                      X1.2