Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00245026           4          13          52          24           7        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00119376           1           5          61          30           3        C4.8
GOES Xray  =   1.26185e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            78           1           5          65          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             1.75        5.75       50.75       34.25        7.50     C7.5
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6