Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241269           3          13          67          15           2        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00109000           2          14          64          15           5        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   1.12665e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            62           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                             2.75       10.25       53.75       27.25        6.00     C4.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5