Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00239016           4          17          57          20           2        C3.4
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00106479           2          15          62          18           3        C3.2
GOES Xray  =   1.04095e-06           1           0          29          59          11        M1.5
est. ISN   =            61           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             2.50       11.75       52.25       29.00        4.50     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.7