Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242003           2          15          62          17           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00111488           3           8          64          16           9        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.20818e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            70           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             1.50        6.75       54.75       29.50        7.50     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      M3.8