Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00246057           2          15          52          23           8        C5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00117587           2           4          65          26           3        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   1.53005e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            79           1           4          65          26           4        C5.0
 
together                             1.50        5.75       51.75       33.50        7.50     C7.2
 
realized                                                                                      M5.3