Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242176           2          13          62          19           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00114480           2           3          73          19           3        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.06180e-06           1           0          28          57          14        M1.7
est. ISN   =            71           1           3          60          32           4        C5.4
 
together                             1.25        5.00       55.75       31.75        6.25     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      C9.7