Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00243042           2          15          60          20           3        C2.9
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00113901           2           3          72          20           3        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.26346e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        5.25       55.50       31.50        6.25     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1