Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238250           5          24          55          14           2        C2.6
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00106349           2          14          63          18           3        C3.2
GOES Xray  =   7.21925e-07           1           0          55          34          10        C8.6
est. ISN   =            97           1           0          65          29           5        C6.5
 
together                             2.25        9.50       59.50       23.75        5.00     C4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C3.0