Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00240991           3          13          67          15           2        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00111707           3           7          64          17           9        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   9.95654e-07           1           0          32          57          10        M1.3
est. ISN   =           101           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             2.00        5.25       57.50       28.75        6.50     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      C9.2