Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241825           2          15          63          16           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00113813           2           3          71          21           3        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   9.78999e-07           1           0          35          54          10        M1.2
est. ISN   =           102           1           1          66          27           5        C6.0
 
together                             1.50        4.75       58.75       29.50        5.50     C6.5
 
realized                                                                                      C6.7