Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241870           2          14          64          16           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00113531           2           4          70          20           4        C5.5
GOES Xray  =   1.06137e-06           1           0          28          57          14        M1.7
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        5.25       56.75       30.00        6.50     C6.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1