Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00243923           3          14          53          26           4        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00115453           3           3          73          19           2        C4.6
GOES Xray  =   1.75122e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            89           1           0          75          20           4        C4.6
 
together                             2.00        4.25       56.50       31.00        6.25     C6.8
 
realized                                                                                      M5.1