Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242050           2          15          61          18           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00107303           2          13          65          17           3        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.52274e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            62           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                             2.50       10.50       52.50       28.50        6.00     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M4.5