Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242461           1          14          62          20           3        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00111551           3           8          64          16           9        C3.6
GOES Xray  =   1.28276e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            81           2           1          63          28           6        C6.5
 
together                             1.75        5.75       53.50       30.75        8.25     C6.6
 
realized                                                                                      M2.1