Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00233088           4          48          36          12           0        B9.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000937620           3          39          49           9           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   4.05001e-07           1           2          78          18           1        C3.0
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             3.75       36.00       49.25       10.75        0.25     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)