Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00248476           1           4          60          32           3        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00124068           1           1          62          32           4        C5.4
GOES Xray  =   1.60834e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           128           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        1.25       49.75       41.00        7.25     C9.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3