Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00268282           1           4          57          36           2        C6.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00147630           1           1          58          34           6        C6.8
GOES Xray  =   4.95859e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           102           1           1          66          27           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.50        2.00       51.50       39.00        7.00     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      X2.2