Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00266908           1           3          58          36           2        C6.3
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00147948           1           1          58          34           6        C6.8
GOES Xray  =   4.15109e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           100           1           1          65          29           4        C6.3
 
together                             0.50        1.75       51.50       39.50        6.75     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      X3.9