Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00266763           1           3          59          35           2        C6.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00149053           1           2          59          32           6        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   4.13143e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            97           1           0          65          29           5        C6.5
 
together                             0.50        1.75       52.00       38.75        7.00     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      X5.8