Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00250566           1           4          62          31           2        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00128360           1           2          64          30           3        C6.4
GOES Xray  =   1.77359e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            88           1           0          72          24           3        C4.5
 
together                             0.75        1.75       55.75       36.00        5.75     C7.5
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6