Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00243823           3          13          55          24           5        C3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00117262           3           3          66          26           2        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   1.15539e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           113           1           0          55          36           8        C8.4
 
together                             1.75        4.00       50.50       36.25        7.50     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5