Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00248282           1           5          61          30           3        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00122982           1           0          67          29           3        C4.4
GOES Xray  =   1.52703e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           103           1           1          66          28           4        C5.5
 
together                             0.75        1.75       54.75       36.50        6.25     C7.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2