Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00255020           1           2          69          25           3        C4.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00133574           2           0          63          30           5        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   2.10395e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           114           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        0.75       52.25       38.75        7.50     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      M5.3