Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00254412           1           2          70          23           4        C4.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00137626           1           0          62          32           5        C6.9
GOES Xray  =   2.00226e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           172           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        0.75       52.25       38.75        7.75     C8.8
 
realized                                                                                      M2.2