Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00252428           1           1          66          28           4        C5.3
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00131408           2           2          65          27           4        C6.3
GOES Xray  =   1.95507e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           111           1           0          56          35           8        C8.3
 
together                             0.75        1.00       53.25       37.25        7.75     C8.5
 
realized                                                                                      M3.9