Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00244864           4          15          51          24           6        C4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00118830           1           6          61          29           3        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.18998e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           105           1           1          65          26           7        C6.4
 
together                             1.75        5.50       50.50       34.50        7.75     C8.2
 
realized                                                                                      M3.6