Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00244837           4          15          50          25           6        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00117447           3           4          66          25           2        C4.5
GOES Xray  =   1.20405e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           114           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             2.00        4.75       48.25       37.50        7.50     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3