Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00262960           2           6          58          30           4        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00144424           1           1          59          34           5        C6.8
GOES Xray  =   2.98324e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           129           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        2.00       48.50       41.00        7.75     C9.3
 
realized                                                                                      X1.7