Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00270874           1           2          59          35           3        C6.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00159073           1           3          69          25           2        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   3.69892e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           158           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        1.25       51.25       40.00        6.75     C8.8
 
realized                                                                                      M4.5