Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00263934           1           5          61          31           2        C5.6
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00149770           1           2          57          34           6        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   2.89120e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           120           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        2.00       48.75       41.25        7.50     C9.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6