Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00256961           1           4          65          25           5        C5.0
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00134769           1           0          64          31           4        C6.8
GOES Xray  =   2.52424e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           126           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        1.00       51.50       39.00        7.75     C8.8
 
realized                                                                                      M5.1