Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242415           1          13          63          20           3        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00110769           3           9          65          15           8        C3.4
GOES Xray  =   1.01550e-06           1           0          30          59          10        M1.4
est. ISN   =            78           1           5          65          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        6.75       55.75       29.50        6.50     C5.8
 
realized                                                                                      C4.4