Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00246337           2          16          52          23           7        C5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00117773           2           5          63          27           3        C4.7
GOES Xray  =   1.34655e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        6.00       51.25       34.00        7.25     C7.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3