Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00250302           1           4          62          32           1        C5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00125544           1           2          63          32           2        C5.9
GOES Xray  =   1.70976e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            87           1           0          66          28           5        C6.0
 
together                             0.50        1.75       54.25       37.75        5.75     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4