Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00265560           1           4          58          35           2        C6.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00147008           1           1          58          35           5        C6.7
GOES Xray  =   3.65411e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           103           1           1          66          28           4        C5.5
 
together                             0.75        1.75       51.75       39.25        6.50     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5