Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00259147           3           3          62          28           4        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00135531           1           0          65          30           4        C6.7
GOES Xray  =   3.19125e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            83           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             1.50        1.00       52.50       37.75        7.25     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      X1.8