Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00250499           1           4          63          31           1        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00122676           1           1          66          29           3        C4.4
GOES Xray  =   1.91506e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            83           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             0.50        2.00       53.00       38.25        6.25     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      X3.3