Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00248181           1           5          59          31           4        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00125003           1           1          64          31           3        C5.6
GOES Xray  =   1.53964e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            68           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             1.00        3.50       53.75       36.00        5.75     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2