Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00268147           1           4          57          36           2        C6.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00157306           1           4          67          26           2        C4.9
GOES Xray  =   3.60055e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           131           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        2.25       50.25       40.50        6.50     C8.9
 
realized                                                                                      X1.5