Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00263375           2           6          63          27           2        C5.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00150375           1           2          56          35           6        C6.5
GOES Xray  =   2.78982e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           107           1           0          60          32           7        C8.2
 
together                             0.75        2.50       51.00       38.25        7.50     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      M2.9