Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00252003           1           2          67          26           4        C4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00131381           2           2          65          27           4        C6.3
GOES Xray  =   1.84279e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           124           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.75        1.25       52.25       38.25        7.50     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      X1.2